Diplomatic Plans Set to be Delivered to Russia In the Coming Days, States Ukraine's President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.